The pattern observed in former regiments of Central Asia shows a progressive reduction in state control, followed by a rapid disintegration once opposition breaks a critical threshold. This trajectory, documented by comparative studies, illustrates how state capacity, legitimacy, and suppression mechanisms erode over years before a sudden collapse. Iran, in the current assessment, does not fulfill the criteria of being at that threshold, according to available indicators of internal dissent and external diplomatic pressure.

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Opponents of the Iranian regime have maintained a strategy of incremental pressure, focusing on economic sanctions, diplomatic isolation, and fostering organized civil society. Their goals include extending time to weaken institutional resilience and encouraging internal political fractures. These actions align with the model that gradual stress accumulates until a tipping point is reached and a swift fallback of control follows. The lack of a decisive domestic crisis suggests that Iran remains outside the collapse phase mentioned by scholars.

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Analysts anticipate that if sustained pressure continues, the scale of reform could accelerate, but current data show a plateau in opposition efficacy. The government’s response has been to clamp down on dissent, tighten media control, and secure economic leverage. In this context, the path to a sudden regime change remains uncertain, and policy formulations must account for the specific constraints that keep the system intact. The observed stability indicates that Iran is not yet subject to the rapid succession framework established in previous authoritarian transitions. The upcoming years will determine whether gradual erosion penetrates the final threshold or whether alternative mechanisms prompt a different type of political shift.